Uber Disruption Model: Expansion Risk Matrix & Strategic Foresight Simulation

A strategic foresight simulation examining Uber's long-term viability across emerging disruptions, regulatory environments, and post-COVID economic dynamics.

Problem

Uber's stability depends on navigating multi-sector uncertainties: autonomy adoption, labour regulation, food-logistics competition, micromobility entrants, and geopolitical volatility. The company required a clear map of threat vectors and future-state vulnerabilities.

Approach

Using McKinsey 7S, PESTEL, lifecycle analysis, and resilience matrices, I reverse-engineered Uber's operating architecture and modelled stress scenarios across multiple expansion trajectories. Each scenario tested weaknesses in governance, compliance, supply chains, and competitive elasticity.

Methods & Tools

• McKinsey 7S analysis
• PESTEL diagnostics
• Disruptive-innovation mapping
• Regulatory risk modelling
• Multi-sector scenario planning
• Competitive landscape intelligence

Outcome

• Identified structural vulnerabilities in autonomy rollout, regulatory risk concentration, and cross-sector diversification
• Built a foresight model outlining viable and non-viable strategic directions
• Delivered a risk-matrix framework integrating economic, technological, and policy pressures

Key Leverage

Demonstrated fluency in navigating asymmetrical threat environments and long-horizon strategic planning under uncertainty.